Author: Noel Castellanos

Date: November 30, 2025

Period Covered: November 1-30, 2025

Key Takeaways

Macroeconomic Developments

• Federal government shutdown became longest in U.S. history at 43 days, creating unprecedented data blackout as BLS, Census Bureau, and BEA ceased operations
• October CPI report canceled entirely—first time BLS has failed to produce monthly inflation data since at least 1994—with October jobs report also omitted
• Consumer sentiment collapsed to 50.3, second-lowest reading in University of Michigan data since 1978, with views on personal finances at weakest since 2009
• Delayed September jobs report showed 119,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.4%, signaling continued labor market cooling
• Fed policy uncertainty intensified as officials split on December rate cut, with market-implied odds swinging from 70% to 30% to 83% within two weeks

Market Performance and Valuation

• S&P 500 experienced first 5% pullback in nearly 150 trading days as AI valuation concerns intensified, with Nasdaq down over 5% month-to-date at trough
• Nvidia delivered 62% year-over-year revenue growth to $57 billion, beating estimates, but shares reversed after initial rally as market questioned sustainability
• Bitcoin crashed below $90,000, erasing all 2025 gains and falling more than 25% from October peak of $126,000 in worst month since 2022
• Gold held above $4,000 per ounce, maintaining 50%+ year-to-date gains while equity markets corrected—divergence persisting as systemic hedge
• Eli Lilly became first healthcare company to reach $1 trillion market capitalization on weight-loss drug demand