Author: Noel Castellanos

Date: June 30, 2025

Period Covered: June 1-30, 2025

Macroeconomics Summary

1. Monetary Policy: High-for-Longer Rates?

• Fed's tone in June 2025 (“obligation to prevent inflation”) signals reluctance to cut rates quickly.
• Bond yields (10-year down to 4.29%) may indicate expectations of future softening, but the Fed remains cautious.

Projection:

• Base case: Fed holds rates steady through Q4 2025.
• Alt case: One rate cut in Q4 if labor data weakens.

2. Markets: Overextended Tech Valuations?

• Nvidia near $4T signals AI exuberance is still red-hot.
• Powell’s caution + “exuberant investors ignore turmoil” headlines imply a disconnect between risk and return.

Projection:

• Tech pullback likely if inflation surprises to the upside or rates rise.
• Private AI companies may delay IPOs into mid-2026 unless they are cash-rich.